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Oscar Weekend 2017: Predictions and Wishes and Hopes and Dreams

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The Oscars are Sunday! Are you so excited? Yes you are who’s a good boy! I won’t get to watch till Monday because they don’t air it in the UK and also sleep is nice, but I’m still feeling the buzz of Oscar weekend and all the excitement over what will happen, who will give great speeches, how the musical performances will be, whether the host will be funny. I honestly just had to look up who was hosting, I had no idea but I should have known it was someone named Jimmy. At least it’s not the one who is now dead to me but like maybe someday soon we can have a funny host who is not named Jimmy? Or a white man? Why haven’t Tina and Amy hosted? Please have them host everything. 

Have you read my reviews of the nominated movies yet? Click here if not, or even if you have maybe you want to follow along when I talk smack about the below nominees. 

Usually the most annoying or boring thing about the Academy Awards is how few surprises there are and how every winner is almost a lock, making office pools come down to best live-action short which is just not fair because you cannot accurately guess that winner no matter how much you know about movies. This year will be no different – in fact, it might be the worst one yet, in terms of expected surefire winners. Yawwwwn. As I’m sure you know, “La La Land” is going to sweep, whether it deserves to (like for music) or not (*cough* Emma *cough*). We’ll have some political winners, some consolation prizes in categories where “LLL” isn’t nominated or can stand to sit that one out (like…costumes), and some lazy down-ballot voting that gives it awards just because the voters don’t know what else to do, like in political elections (except 99% of the time it is appropriate to just vote an entirely democratic ticket you morons). So heeeere weeee goooooo! (Now we…oh no…I know…oh no…(anyone?))
BEST PICTURE
ARRIVAL
FENCES
HACKSAW RIDGE
HELL OR HIGH WATER
HIDDEN FIGURES
LA LA LAND
LION
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
MOONLIGHT
Like you don’t already know, silly buttons. It’s not even funny how many “La La Land” is going to win. (It’s really not funny because, while I loved it as a fun musical movie that I’ll rewatch a bunch, it doesn’t deserve to, like, break records! Or beat the total number of awards won by far superior movies (like “You’ve Got Mail” WHERE’S THE OSCAR FOR THAT PERFECT GEM HUH?? WHERE IS IT). But although a lot of people are crossing their fingers hoping for “Moonlight” to stage an upset, that will not happen. Really, really, not. As I said in my review, “La La Land” is definitely a good movie, great to some, but not the second coming that people are treating it as. But it combines all the elements of a winner – hot young stars, great music, hot  young director, and – most telling of all in Oscar history – a Hollywood, L.A., and movie-business-centric story. The industry cannot ever say no to movies about itself (see e.g. “Argo” and “The Artist”. All three of these are fantastic movies but were given an extra push by the self-love voting protocol).
     OH before we move on, I must say, this bunch of nominees is REDONK. “Hidden Figures” was a TV movie and maybe would have deserved an Emmy nomination if nothing about O.J. came out to fight it, but a Best Picture Oscar? You cray. “Manchester By The Sea”? Can you repeat this with me: NOT EVERY DECENT ARTHOUSE MOVIE THAT HAS LOTS OF SIGHING AND TORMENTED WHITE MEN IN WINTRY LANDSCAPES IS BEST PICTURE WORTHY. My five – yes five, as I say every year, because this expanded list does not work for me – would be “Lion”, “Moonlight”, “La La Land”, and…and then I don’t even know. “Fences” and “Arrival”, maybe? You know what I’d give my last two spots to Clipping’s new “Splendor & Misery” album and…”You’ve Got Mail”.
BEST ACTRESS
ISABELLE HUPPERT – Elle
RUTH NEGGA – Loving
NATALIE PORTMAN – Jackie
EMMA STONE – La La Land
MERYL STREEP – Florence Foster Jenkins
    I was so excited for Natalie Portman to win her second Oscar during her second pregnancy – how fun would that have been! If every time she wins an award she has an alien in her giant belly! Love it! But no. Not gonna happen. Ugh I know this category is so weak and I didn’t even see most of them! I literally saw 1.5 of these performances – Emma Stone’s and Natalie Portman’s before I had to shut her terrible movie off. Luckily, the one full performance I saw is the one that will win. Unfortunately, it’s probably the least Oscar-worthy role or performance that will win maybe ever. This is like everyone who said ‘Jennifer Lawrence for “Silver Linings Playbook”? That’s crazy to win the Oscar for!” but actually legit (I would have voted for JLaw then, so good). Don’t get me wrong, Emma really was wonderful in “La La Land”, but not Best Actress Oscar wonderful! What even is this! She should have won for “Easy A” if we’re doing this just because of how much everyone loves her. But I guess it was a supes weak year, because no one is talking about Ruth Negga sadly unless it’s to say she took Amy Adams’s or Annette Bening’s spot, which is sad because I bet she’s the most deserving one here. At least her role seems the most winning. Unless we’re talking about Isabelle, who scared the crap out of me just in the trailer for “Elle”, which looks way too intense and scary for me to see. But like she seems amazing. Meryl being nominated for FFJ is FFS. I loved Annette Bening in “20th Century Women” so much, and I really do have to see “Elle” because all the gay comedians I trust have been talking about how amazing Isabelle was. So, this super-guaranteed lock for Emma just seems nuts. But whateverrrr let’s continue making her journey to success the exact opposite of the character she played.
BEST ACTOR
CASEY AFFLECK – Manchester by the Sea
ANDREW GARFIELD – Hacksaw Ridge
RYAN GOSLING – La La Land
VIGGO MORTENSEN – Captain Fantastic
DENZEL WASHINGTON – Fences
I forgot to see “Captain Fantastic”, oops! It looked so weird like a mashup of a Wes Anderson movie with a commercial for Old Navy colored jeans but somehow I just forgot about it. I guess it’s not a huge deal because Viggo has the lowest chance of winning giving his film is not in contention. I am so happy for Andrew Garfield, not that I saw his film but because his ex-girlfriend is going to win and is like the biggest star so it must be really hard for him and so I hope an Oscar nomination makes him happier. Ryan Gosling absolutely deserves his nomination, and in my opinion was the strongest one in triple L, just perfection. But this is between Casey “ughhhh I can’t be assed with making my words unnerrstannaabulllll I’m so tired of my privilegeee” Affleck and Denzel “I gave the f-ing best performance by a lead male or female of the year so RECOGNIZE” Washington. The former is my real impression of the king of mumblecore Casey; the latter is just what I think is true. If Casey wins ughhh it’ll be really annoying. He was very good but the movie was boring. Just bleh mumblemanning and I’m not down with it. He was like, passively good, like the performance was happening to him, along with the movie to us. And his performance in that regard has some merit, especially with how  natural he seemed (though that could be from playing himself in some form). On the other hand, Denzel gave the most actively impressive performance, a performance that jumped off the screen and grabbed you by the neck and shook you while screaming I AM INCREDIBLE ACTING and, well, leaving you shook. And somehow, while bowling you over with how damn good this acting was, it didn’t take you out of the story to realize it and it didn’t seem like he was putting on a character at all. He was amazing and really deserves to win. Usually I like to spread the wealth but his last one doesn’t count.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
VIOLA DAVIS – Fences
NAOMIE HARRIS – Moonlight
NICOLE KIDMAN – Lion
OCTAVIA SPENCER – Hidden Figures
MICHELLE WILLIAMS – Manchester by the Sea
There is no contest here. Did you SEE Viola’s snot crying? She should get the Oscar and a Kleenex endorsement deal for that shiz. God she is amazing. I thought she would never be better than she was when she freaking broke the ground when she took her makeup and wig off in “How To Get Away With Murder”, but her performance in this movie topped even that. I do love this category though; I think it’s my favorite. We have 3 black women nominated, which is probably breaking records, and all three gave splendid performances, although I would have chosen Taraji from “Hidden Figures”, if she wasn’t considered leading. We have Michelle (who is always excellent and really I hope wins one day for a leading role) playing someone named Randi, so I am in for that, and she was also very good in her few scenes in Manchester by the snooze button. Then we have Nikki K high-kicking it down at the Moulin Rouge (which she should have won for, come on) who was only nominated because she is Nikki K – that role was not much – but hey I’m okay with more love for “Lion” when it probably won’t win anything, which is whatever the Hindi word for shanda is. But Viola, hot damn I say HOT DAMN, is she the best actress working today? Definitely top two.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
MAHERSHALA ALI – Moonlight
JEFF BRIDGES – Hell or High Wate
LUCAS HEDGES – Manchester by the Sea
DEV PATEL – Lion
MICHAEL SHANNON – Nocturnal Animals
    I’m kind of conflicted here! Not about Jeff Bridges, who I love and I’m sure he’s great but he doesn’t seem able or willing to break out of his typecasting sooo I’ma pass. Not about Lucas Hedges, who was very good in Manchester by the sorry I’m not home right now but his nomination is his award. And not about Michael Shannon who also is always good but I’ve said enough about that movie already. No, I’m conflicted because I originally was gung-ho for Mahershala – even before I saw “Moonlight”; what can I say he is amazing – but the more I think about Dev in “Lion” the more I recognize how great he was, even though he was upstaged repeatedly by Sunny’s face and/or voice. Dev had the meatier role, too, although Mahershala made a gigantic impact on that movie in his one act, and perhaps it’s even more impressive that he managed to turn his shorter screen time into something so important to a film not about him. So, as long as Mahershala or Dev wins, I’m happy. I think if I were voting I would go for Mahershala, who has such a strong presence and really made an impact on “Moonlight”. However, I would 100% be swayed to vote for Dev if he promised to bring Sunny onstage for his acceptance. On that note, my biggest gripe with this is why Sunny wasn’t nominated. Lesser child actors have been nominated for their movies. And lesser grown up actors. He was amazing, guys, he really freaking was and you better tell him you’re sorry.
BEST DIRECTOR
DENIS VILLENEUVE – Arrival
MEL GIBSON – Hacksaw Ridge
DAMIEN CHAZELLE – La La Land
KENNETH LONERGAN – Manchester by the Sea
BARRY JENKINS – Moonlight
   Lol Mel Gibson. Guys what are you even doing.
​   I’ve seen some reports saying that this is the category that “La La Land” might lose, to spread the wealth with “Moonlight”, but as much as I would love for that to happen, it won’t. Damien Chazelle is the golden boy of Hollywood and is responsible for this super beloved movie, and he really is a phenomenal director. I think he deserved it more for “Whiplash” than “La La Land”, the former of which was tight and flawless while the latter gets a bit loose in the cage for a while. “Arrival” is a very well directed movie too, so controlled and meticulous and nuanced, but “Moonlight” does those traits even better. “Moonlight” clearly demonstrates an even-keeled hand and eye for subtlety and careful pacing. “Manchester” tries for that careful pacing but ends up being way too slow and thudding instead of just aware. I would probably vote for Barry and would be thrilled if he scored the upset but “La La Land” is Damien’s movie and the Academy will want to make sure he still likes them.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Original
HELL OR HIGH WATER – Taylor Sheridan
LA LA LAND – Damien Chazelle
THE LOBSTER – LOLOL
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA – Kenneth Lonergan
20TH CENTURY WOMEN – Mike Mills
Adapted
ARRIVAL – Eric Heisserer
FENCES – August Wilson (? he dead)
HIDDEN FIGURES – Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi
LION – Luke Davies
MOONLIGHT – Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin
     Lolol “The Lobster”!! I thought we were done with that RIDICULOUS nonsense! Oh my god I love how insane that movie is, but that was on my list from last year (follow the link to read my review). I guess that craziness came from being European and so we got it here in London earlier than the USA did. Lol I’m cracking up that that is nominated this year. No please. Well it is incredibly original, I’ll give it that. As for the other Original Screenplay noms, I guess “La La Land” wins this one too. I can’t comment on “Hell or High Water”, and “Manchester” oof the screenplay must be like “5 words of dialogue, lots of Casey sighing and rubbing his head, 5 more words, the end”. My vote would go to “20th Century Women” beyond all doubt, and I will harbor a secret wish (well I guess not so secret now) that it scores an upset on Sunday for being the true best original screenplay of the season. Mike Mills wrote such wonderful dialogue and such deep, real characters, and the more I think about it the more sure I am that he deserves this award that will go to “La La Land”.
    Adapted screenplay is much harder for me to decide on. “Hidden Figures”, no, it’s screenplay was probably the biggest culprit in the amateurish feel. Or the direction. Either way, not going to win. “Arrival” was a very well done movie, but I guess it’s direction shone more than the screenplay. I love that August Wilson is nominated for “Fences” when he died like more than a decade ago. I looked into it because I thought  maybe they were just straight up using the play without significant changes or something to explain this. But no, he just happened to have worked on this that many years ago, and it took that long for this film adaptation of his beloved play to come to fruition. Part of the delay was that August wanted a black director, and during the intervening years Hollywood was like, ‘hey we already have a black man in the White House; isn’t that enough for you?’ or something other horrible nonsense excuse for not hiring enough diverse people in the super white business, but then luckily Denzel was like fuck it I’ll direct and I’ll do a magnificent job and I better win an acting Oscar for it. But I’m hoping for either “Moonlight” or “Lion” to win, and I honestly can’t decide. Both were the strongest movies of the year, mostly due to their bones – direction and writing. If I were forced to vote – which I’m not because I’m not a member of the Academy but hello to whoever might be reading this I would like to be – I have to go with “Moonlight”. So well done and meticulous.
BEST SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – LA LA LAND, BENJ PASEK & JUSTIN PAUL
“Can’t Stop The Feeling!” – TROLLS, JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE ET AL.
​”City of Stars” – LA LA LAND, JUSTIN HURWITZ AND PASEK & PAUL
“The Empty Chair” – JIM: THE JAMES FOLEY STORY, J. RALPH AND STING
“How Far I’ll Go” – MOANA, LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA
Can we take a beat here to appreciate this category? We have my current favorite Broadway composers, Pasek & Paul, with two songs from “La La Land”. We have my long-time other favorite Broadway composer, Lin-Manuel, with a great song from the newest Disney princess movie. I cannot express my excitement for these three amazing wonderfully talented guys. And then they are nominated against Justin Timberlake and Sting. I’m hysterical it’s so funny and awesome. I’m pretty sure Justin Timberlake and Sting are out of the running unless some weird shit goes down from the two “LLL” songs splitting the vote, but I think any benefit of that movie’s double nominations will go to Lin, and rightly so. The two songs nominated from “LLL” are in my opinion the weakest two of the whole movie. While still great, I’d put the opening number and “A Lovely Night” way above those two in terms of quality and catchiness and overall greatness. And that’s leaving out my favorite from the film “Someone in the Crowd”, which has that riff that I’m obsessed with but you can’t hear what I mean because luckily for you the fact that I’m singing it for you right now has no way of translating to the page. “City of Stars”, the likely winner, is the weakest in the movie, but I guess it’s the most memorable, although that seems super contradictory. But I am right. I am so excited for Pasek & Paul to become Oscar winners, I really don’t care that it’s for the wrong song. (If any Tony voters are reading this, you f-ing better have them win a Tony this season too because “Dear Evan Hansen” has by far the best score of the year and most years and if you get distracted by words taken straight from a Russian novel and put to mostly annoying and ugly music I will hunt you down.) However, if they do indeed split the vote with their two nominated songs, I would be equally excited because “How Far I’ll Go” is the best song on the above list. I’m going to link below to the scene from “Moana” where she sings that song and JUST TRY TO TELL ME that you don’t get super pumped and ready to greet the world with newfound verve and vigor. JUST TRY. It’s a great song, and it would make Lin the youngest person to EGOT, so I mean, as long as it’s a song from “La La Land” or “Moana”, we can’t lose. 
Oh and obviously “La La Land” will win best score, there didn’t even have to be other nominees in that category.
Tell me this song doesn’t rock your damn world, son.

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So what about the actual show? As we said in the height of the 2016 misery fest, the Oscars telecast should just be 3 hours of the In Memoriam so all the many, many greats that passed can get a decent send-off, and then just hand out awards to the winners for 20 minutes tops. If I were Meron and Zadan (I assume they are the producers, don’t they get hired to produce everything), what would I do? First, I would have a Kennedy Center Honors-style Broadway legend tribute to the more musical losses we suffered. It’s especially important to copy the Kennedy Center Honors format since that legendary arts event is now going to be an orange cheeto honoring Ted Nugent and 311. Then there would be an amazing modern dance extravaganza for Bowie and Prince. Later would come long clips of “Singin’ in the Rain” with Debbie Reynolds followed by footage of all her “Will & Grace” appearances. ALL OF THEM! Bonus points for humanity if there is hidden footage of Mama Adler’s performance as Queen Lear or in Death of a Saleswomen. Then we would see all of Carrie Fisher’s late night appearances. ALL OF THEM! That would be justice. Especially because this crop of Oscar movies aren’t as great as Debbie was on W&G and Carrie was on every late night talk show. I don’t think anything ever could be, actually.

Anyway, on that note, enjoy the Oscars! What do you think will win? What do you want to win? What wasn’t nominated that should have been? Tell me things.

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